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What are your chances of dying within four years?
Researchers have come up
with 12 risk factors to try to answer that for people over
age 50. This is one game where you want a low score. The
quiz is designed "to try to help doctors and families get a
firmer sense for what the future may hold," to help plan
health care accordingly, says lead author Dr. Sei Lee, a
geriatrics researcher at the San Francisco Veterans
Affairs Medical Center, who helped develop
it.
"We know that patients and
families want more prognostic information from doctors," Lee
said. "It's a very natural human question of 'What's going
to happen to me?' We also know that doctors are very
cautious about giving prognostic information because they
don't want to be wrong."
This test is roughly 81
percent accurate and can give older people a reasonable idea
of their survival chances, Lee and his colleagues say. Of
course, it isn't foolproof. Other experts note it ignores
family history and it's much less meaningful for those at
the young end of the spectrum.
The researchers even warn
not to try this at home, saying a doctor can help you put
things into perspective. "Even if somebody looks at their
numbers and finds they have a 60 percent risk of death,
there could be other mitigating factors," said co-author and
VA researcher Dr. Kenneth Covinsky.
There are things you can
do to improve your chances, he notes, such as quitting
smoking or taking up exercise.
The test is based on data
involving 11,701 Americans over 50 who took part in a
national health survey in 1998. Funded by a grant from the
National Institute on Aging, the researchers analyzed
participants' outcomes during a four-year follow-up. They
based their death-risk survey on the health characteristics
that seemed to predict death within four years. Their report
appears in the February 15, 2006 issue of the Journal of
the American Medical Association.
In one puzzling aspect of
the test, people with a body-mass index of less than 25
— which includes normal weight people — get a
point while those who are overweight aren't penalized.
Covinsky said that BMI measurement includes underweight
people — those who have lost weight because of illness,
a risk factor for the elderly. As to obesity, Lee noted
there are more points for diabetes and for difficulty
walking several blocks — both associated with excess
weight.
The
Test
1. Age: If you're
50-59, 0 points; 60-64 years old, 1 point; 65-69, 2 points;
70-74, 3 points; 75-79, 4 points; 80-84, 5 points; 85 and
older, 7 points.
2. If you're a man,
2 points.
3. Weighing too
little in relation to height adds 1 point. How to figure:
Your body mass index needs to be 25 or higher. This is
counter to doctors' orders to keep that number low -- and
thus avoid being overweight. But remember: The measure is
weighing too little -- a health risk for older people. The
figure is computed by dividing weight in pounds by the
square of the height in inches, and multiplying by
703.
4. If you're a
diabetic, 2 points.
5. Have cancer
(excluding minor skin cancers): 2 points.
6. Chronic lung
disease that limits activities or requires oxygen use at
home: 2 points.
7. Congestive heart
failure: 2 points.
8. Cigarette
smoking in the past week: 2 points.
9. Difficulty
bathing/showering because of a health or memory problem: 2
points.
10. Difficulty
managing money, paying bills or keeping track of expenses
because of a health or memory problem: 2 points.
11. Difficulty
walking several blocks because of a health problem: 2
points.
12. Difficulty
pushing or pulling large objects like a living room chair
because of a health problem: 1 point.
Score:
0 to 5 points: less
than a 4% risk of dying within 4 years
6-9 points: 15%
risk
10-13 points: 42%
risk
14 or more points:
64% risk
The Best
Years of Your Life
Retirement is
increasingly regarded as a transition to another work
life--a work life that is more in tune with who you are and
what you enjoy doing. Before retirement is the time to dream
about what you would love doing and invest in that dream by
being specific
as to what, where and how to make your dream a
reality.
In 2000, 37% of men and
31% of women age 55 to 64 were employed full or part-time
while receiving pension income, according to investment firm
TAA-CREF. Those proportions are likely to go higher with 8
out of 10 baby boomer saying they plan to work in retirement
according to an AARP
study.
A survey by Allstate
Financial of Northbrook, IL of 1,004 Baby Boomers, born
between 1946 and 1961, found 82 percent believe that
retirement will be more fun and rewarding than their
parent's retirement. Others believe it will be more active
(65%) and the best years of their lives (63%).
Early retirees today are
not really idle after their retirements. They continue doing
part-time work during their phased
retirement.
The part-time work is
done at a more leisure pace so as not to get too stressed
out. Furthermore, they have the luxury to pick and
choose
work of real interest to
them so that they
can enjoy doing "fun" work at a more leisurely
pace.
The
decades-long trend toward early retirement among
50-something's may be over.
In 2000, about 69 percent
of men ages 53 to 61 were working according to a
University of Michigan Institute for Social Research
Health and Retirement Study which surveys more than
22,000 Americans over the age of 50 every two years. "Job
demands are a factor in early retirement," says David Weir,
associate director of the study, "and these kinds of changes
in job characteristics bode well for keeping older Americans
working longer. The physical demands of their jobs may not
push people out as much as in the recent past."
These are bleak times for
Baby Boomers to be thinking about retirement. With major
stock indexes back to their 1998 levels, workers who are
looking at their 401(k) balance are recalculating their
retirement projections.
The retirement assets of
the bottom 70% of US households are 13% lower now than in
1983, when the stock market was a tenth of today's levels,
according to New York University economics professor Edward
Wolff. "I was surprised, because I thought the 401(k)
revolution would have been very beneficial for the vast
majority of workers," says Wolff, an expert on household
wealth.
The result:
Many
Americans will have to work longer than
planned. Baby
Boomers must foot more of the bill for their own retirement.
With companies covering fewer workers, and paying less for
those they do cover, employers' overall spending on
retirement has plunged by 22% since 1986, to an average of
$.83 an hour, according to a Labor Dept. study.
Baby Boomers
Could Use Some Mid-life Coaching
As boomers seek the next
great chapter in their lives, they often feel adrift. Many
have lost their greatest fans: their parents. At work, they
sense that they're being marginalized. Or they're bored.
Unemployed job-searchers have become the generation's most
active soul-searchers.
If you are seeking a
new
life direction,
like a career change or becoming a free
agent, we should
talk. Some mid-life coaching conversations can help you
clarify where you are and where you want to be---and how to
get there.
Coach
John Agno knows
that sometimes our thoughts aren't crystal clear and we can
be diverted from our goals. As a personal coach, it is his
job is to help people achieve greater awareness, purpose,
competency and well-being, which often translates into
greater compensation, job satisfaction and better use of
personal skills and abilities. More Baby
Boomers are hiring
coaches to help them make better decisions during the best
years of their life.
